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Analysis

Gold
EUR

【今日速递】通胀预期升高 2021复苏在望?

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
2 Dec 2020
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全球股市12月开门红,欧元突破1.20,黄金重返200天均线。

今日关注

  • 澳大利亚第三季度GDP
  • 欧元区10月失业率
  • 美国11月ADP就业人数变动

股市

继11月录得两位数涨幅后,美股12月实现开门红。标普500上涨1.13%,纳斯达克和道琼斯分别上涨1.28%和0.63%。

投资者正在寻找一切理由推高风险资产,而疫苗即将过审上市以及美国重启财政刺激谈判的利好消息再次点燃多头热情,盖过了市场对鲍威尔在国会听证会所提到的“经济复苏不确定性”以及不及预期的ISM制造业PMI的担忧。

10年期美债收益率突破0.9%,且预期通胀率走高至1.82%,暗示着2021年的主旋律将是经济复苏。因此我们看到了昨天盘中周期型股尤其是金融板块走强。

欧洲和亚太股市普涨。A股三大指数集体走强,其中沪指上涨1.77%,收报3451.94点。澳洲ASX200上涨至6588.5点,涨幅1.08%。

商品

黄金上涨2%至1815.01,重回200天均线,并且自11月中旬以来首次收于5天EMA线上方。超卖的技术指标有所修复,但仍处于下降趋势之中。

黄金近来的走势与美元和实际利率呈现罕见的正相关性。但是这种同步走势无法长期维持,因此黄金终将回归到与美元反向运行的常态。但金价只有突破前期支撑1848后,才有望反转下跌趋势。

WTI原油(XTIUSD)继续向下修正,收于44.17。由于OPEC+未能就明年的产能协议达成一致,因此给原油市场带来不确定性,市场原本预计OPEC+将会决定推迟定于1月份实施的增产。

外汇

美元指数(USDX)下挫至91.09,刷新了两年半以来的新低。高涨的风险偏好使投资者进一步抛售美元,市场对美元的空头押注已经升至记录高位。

欧元突破近期区间的顶部,跳升至2018年5月以来的新高1.2071。

除了美元的疲弱,欧洲地区的疫情有明显的趋缓迹象,封城措施收到了积极的效果,而与此同时11月的欧元区制造业PMI上修至53.8,德国11月失业率好于预期和前值。

在冲破了前期的阻力之后,欧元多头的下一个目标为2017年9月高点1.2092。但需要注意的是,过高的汇率一方面可能引起欧洲央行的关注,同时也可能打压欧元区刚有所抬头的预期通胀率。

英镑攀升至1.34上方,接近年内高点。英国脱欧的消息偏正面,提振了英镑走势。但随着谈判接近尾声,投资者需要谨防买预期,卖事实的情况。

风险货币方面,澳元上涨至0.7372。今天将迎来澳洲三季度GDP,市场普遍预期增长2.5%。在成功控制住疫情之后,澳洲有望正式走出经济衰退。但中国和澳洲之间的紧张关系限制了澳元的涨幅。昨天的澳洲联储维持货币政策不变。

纽元再次刷新两年半来的新高至0.7065。美/加收低于1.2933。



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