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Analysis

US500
Tesla

《鱿鱼游戏》能否刺激Netflix冲击700美元?

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
19 Oct 2021
Share
美国银行业的强劲业绩为美股三季度财报季开了个好头,而本周将陆续有科技股发布最新业绩。

华尔街大型银行(摩根大通、花旗、富国、美国银行、摩根士丹利、高盛等)三季度的业绩全部轻松超出预期,但上周金融板块(+1.23%)对标普500指数的拉动却远不及原材料板块(+3.64%)。

标普500经过了一个月的调整之后已经重新站上了50天均线,目前离记录高点仅有1.3%的距离。纳斯达克和道琼斯也有着类似的走势。

本周开始科技股的财报将陆续登场,可以重点关注Netflix(美国当地时间周二盘后)、特斯拉和IBM(周三),以及英特尔(周四)的业绩和股价反应。您还可以在MT4/5上轻松进行美股的交易。

Netflix

分析师预测Netflix三季度每股收益为2.56美元、营收74.8亿美元,全球订阅数将增加350万,而今年上半年的订阅人数出现放缓迹象。

若新增订阅数大幅超出预期,绝对有《鱿鱼游戏》的一份功劳。该剧自9月开播以来风靡全网,一个月内点击过亿。在豆瓣“仅有”7.6的评分,但却意外的符合欧美观众的口味,烂番茄网上的好评达到92%。据彭博透露,2000万美元的制作成本已经产生了近9亿美元的价值(45倍的投资回报率)。而在此期间Netflix市值增加了近200亿美元。经此一役,Netflix或许已经掌握了能通吃东西方观众的”财富密码“。

目前股价为$638,距离刚刚刷新的记录高位646咫尺之遥,700美元也近在眼前。期权市场隐含波动率显示,财报公布当日股价的预期波动为6%,这与过去8次财报日的实际波动程度基本吻合。这意味着不论您是看涨还是看跌,都有可能从较大的市场波动中觅得交易良机。

特斯拉

特斯拉第三季度的每股收益预计为1.5美元,营收135亿美元。其在三季度的交付了24.13万辆汽车,超过了华尔街的普遍预期。

在业绩出炉之前,股价已经突破了上升通道运行至870美元,已经从5月的低点反弹了超过50%,而马斯克也以2300亿美元的个人财富重新夺回了全球首富的宝座。

3%的卖空比率是有史以来最低水平之一。但值得注意的是,在此前三次的财报公布当日股价全部下跌,平均跌幅为3.3%,并且RSI正处在超买状态,而上一次超买发生在今年1月,当时引起了股价从历史高点回落。

除了财报数字,我们还需要关注高通胀和供应链瓶颈将如何影响企业经营前景的。另外,美联储越来越强的加息预期也是股市(尤其是成长型科技股)不得不面对的利空因素。

此次的财报季将在下周迎来高潮,标普500中将近一半市值的成分股届时将会公布业绩,其中就包括了苹果、微软、亚马逊、Facebook、谷歌等五巨头(FAAMG),我们也将在下周持续跟踪股市动态。


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