在昨天之前,新西兰央行在8月加息似乎是板上钉钉的事,甚至有直接加息50bps的可能。但这一切在过去的24小时内产生了戏剧性的反转。
由于出现了六个月以来的首次社区传播病例,新西兰昨天果断宣布封城。利率市场暗示的加息幅度从前一天的30bp降至19bp,纽元全天重挫1.4%至0.6920,成为G10中表现最为惨淡的货币。一夜之间,加息预期骤降。
果不其然,今天的新西兰联储宣布维持现金利率在0.25%不变。不过联储对未来的经济前景依然保持乐观,不仅预计在第四季度加息,同时也上调了通胀预期。
在利率决议出炉后,纽元短线下探9个月低点0.6869但随即展开反弹。
NZDUSD
近期纽元不仅受到了加息预期落空的冲击,风险情绪的升高也令商品货币普遍承压。关注今晚的美联储会议纪要,如果透露出更多缩表的细节,可能继续提振美元从而打压非美货币。
在纽元回到震荡区间上沿0.70上方之前预计将继续弱势运行。而如果跌穿0.6880一线,恐怕将加速跌向0.68附近。
考虑到靓丽的经济数据,央行强调了新西兰经济的反弹比大多数国家都要强劲。因此新西兰未来的加息步伐仍将领先其他主要央行,这也让我们对纽元下半年的走势依然有所期待。
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