Analysis
标普500的新篇章
尽管有众多投行和数据都暗示标普500需要经历一波调整，我们在此前的文章中也详细分析了这些原因，但鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔会议上的鸽派言论帮助股指一举站上了4500点这一新的历史高度。
史上最快翻番？RSI指标背离？新冠疫情？这些都不重要！风险偏好不断升高，流动性的盛宴仍在继续！
标普500（US500）
短期来看指数面临两个考验。一是本周五的非农数据若连续第三个月实现大幅增长，可能重燃对美联储缩减购债的预期。二是即将到来的9月是标普500一年中表现最差的月份，在过去十年的9月期间平均跌幅为0.6%。布林带上轨能否放缓股指上涨的脚步？
下图中绿线是标普当前的走势，而白线是过去十年的季节性效应，其在1（现在）和2（9月中旬）的位置分别有明显的下跌。第二波回撤的时间正好涵盖了9月22日的FOMC会议，这是在暗示届时将正式宣布Taper吗？
因为英国假期的原因，货币市场周一显得比较平静。美元、欧元和英镑几乎持平，商品货币在经历了周五的大幅跳升后昨天稍作喘息，瑞郎则领跌。
考虑到美联储年底前开始缩表已经没有悬念，因此总体上还是看好美债收益率和美元指数的表现的。那些在货币政策上更大胆激进的货币（如英镑、加元、纽元等）也有望受益。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）随着飓风威力的减弱从日内高点回落，但仍收高于69.24。飓风的影响过后，市场将焦点转向明天的OPEC+部长级会议。若增产计划被推迟，油价可能从当前下降通道的顶部区域进一步回落。
关于黄金白银的走势，欢迎关注我们的每天更新视频分析《说金道银》。
Related articles
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..