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Analysis
尽管有众多投行和数据都暗示标普500需要经历一波调整，我们在此前的文章中也详细分析了这些原因，但鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔会议上的鸽派言论帮助股指一举站上了4500点这一新的历史高度。
史上最快翻番？RSI指标背离？新冠疫情？这些都不重要！风险偏好不断升高，流动性的盛宴仍在继续！
标普500（US500）
短期来看指数面临两个考验。一是本周五的非农数据若连续第三个月实现大幅增长，可能重燃对美联储缩减购债的预期。二是即将到来的9月是标普500一年中表现最差的月份，在过去十年的9月期间平均跌幅为0.6%。布林带上轨能否放缓股指上涨的脚步？
下图中绿线是标普当前的走势，而白线是过去十年的季节性效应，其在1（现在）和2（9月中旬）的位置分别有明显的下跌。第二波回撤的时间正好涵盖了9月22日的FOMC会议，这是在暗示届时将正式宣布Taper吗？
因为英国假期的原因，货币市场周一显得比较平静。美元、欧元和英镑几乎持平，商品货币在经历了周五的大幅跳升后昨天稍作喘息，瑞郎则领跌。
考虑到美联储年底前开始缩表已经没有悬念，因此总体上还是看好美债收益率和美元指数的表现的。那些在货币政策上更大胆激进的货币（如英镑、加元、纽元等）也有望受益。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）随着飓风威力的减弱从日内高点回落，但仍收高于69.24。飓风的影响过后，市场将焦点转向明天的OPEC+部长级会议。若增产计划被推迟，油价可能从当前下降通道的顶部区域进一步回落。
关于黄金白银的走势，欢迎关注我们的每天更新视频分析《说金道银》。
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