- English
- 中文版
- Launch webtrader
Launch webtrader
- Ways to trade
Ways to trade
- Platforms
Platforms
- Markets & Symbols
Markets & Symbols
- Analysis
Analysis
- Learn to Trade
Learn to Trade
- Pepperstone Pro
Pepperstone Pro
- Partners
Partners
- About us
About us
- Help and support
Help and support
Analysis
三大股指周二的涨幅均在2%以上，所有板块飘红，其中能源股和科技股领涨。在上周五期权到期之后，交易商用来进行对冲的空头头寸有所解除。
但是，如果认为反弹就此一触即发，那也过于乐观了。我们可以从以下几个角度来进行衡量。
首先是经济前景。通胀和加息压力之下，“经济衰退”的话题近来被炒作的沸沸扬扬。然而这并不是危言耸听，各种先行指标都亮起了红灯。比如在企业端，订单数量减少，加速去库存，裁员力度加大、CFO调查对未来表达悲观预期。在消费者层面，信心降至历史新低、储蓄率和物价的相反走势将对消费形成进一步压制。房地产市场中，贷款申请、新屋开工和成屋销售等数据连续数月下滑。就连美联储自己的模型都预测有30%左右的概率遭遇经济衰退。
在不景气的宏观环境下，股市估值目前仍然偏高，或许还没有完全计价衰退的因素。历次衰退周期中，标普500的EPS下降幅度的中位数为15%，从这个角度来看，企业的盈利预期恐怕还将遭遇下修。
同样以史为鉴，1946年以来，标普500遭遇的所有熊市的平均跌幅为32%左右，峰值到谷底耗时300多天。而现在较峰值只过了100多天且仅下跌了21%。如果股市的熊市和经济衰退周期相重叠，则将需要更长时间来走出底部，在这期间的熊市反弹并不意外。比如下图显示，在00-02年和07-09年的熊市中，就多次出现10%—20%的反弹力度。
如果从更近的周期来做比较，在5月加息50个基点之后，标普500一度出现了近9%的下挫，而在本次75个基点加息之后却相对比较平静。或许已经是提前计价了，但考虑到未来还有更多75bp的加息可能，我们依然需要保持谨慎。近期金融状况收紧，高收益率债券的信用利差持续走阔，也令人担忧股市反弹的持久力。
今明两天需要关注鲍威尔在国会听证会的情况，他的一言一行都足以影响市场情绪。若继续坚定的“无条件”抗击通胀，短期的乐观情绪可能很快就烟消云散。
Related articles
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..