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Analysis
三大股指周二的漲幅均在2%以上，所有板塊飄紅，其中能源股和科技股領漲。在上周五期權到期之後，交易商用來進行對沖的空頭頭寸有所解除。
但是，如果認為反彈就此一觸即發，那也過於樂觀了。我們可以從以下幾個角度來進行衡量。
首先是經濟前景。通脹和加息壓力之下，「經濟衰退」的話題近來被炒作的沸沸揚揚。然而這並不是危言聳聽，各種先行指標都亮起了紅燈。比如在企業端，訂單數量減少，加速去庫存，裁員力度加大、CFO調查對未來表達悲觀預期。在消費者層面，信心降至歷史新低、儲蓄率和物價的相反走勢將對消費形成進一步壓製。房地產市場中，貸款申請、新屋開工和成屋銷售等數據連續數月下滑。就連美聯儲自己的模型都預測有30%左右的概率遭遇經濟衰退。
在不景氣的宏觀環境下，股市估值目前仍然偏高，或許還沒有完全計價衰退的因素。歷次衰退周期中，標普500的EPS下降幅度的中位數為15%，從這個角度來看，企業的盈利預期恐怕還將遭遇下修。
同樣以史為鑒，1946年以來，標普500遭遇的所有熊市的平均跌幅為32%左右，峰值到谷底耗時300多天。而現在較峰值只過了100多天且僅下跌了21%。如果股市的熊市和經濟衰退周期相重疊，則將需要更長時間來走出底部，在這期間的熊市反彈並不意外。比如下圖顯示，在00-02年和07-09年的熊市中，就多次出現10%—20%的反彈力度。
如果從更近的周期來做比較，在5月加息50個基點之後，標普500一度出現了近9%的下挫，而在本次75個基點加息之後卻相對比較平靜。或許已經是提前計價了，但考慮到未來還有更多75bp的加息可能，我們依然需要保持謹慎。近期金融狀況收緊，高收益率債券的信用利差持續走闊，也令人擔憂股市反彈的持久力。
今明兩天需要關註鮑威爾在國會聽證會的情況，他的一言一行都足以影響市場情緒。若繼續堅定的「無條件」抗擊通脹，短期的樂觀情緒可能很快就煙消雲散。
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