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Analysis
美国40年来最高的通胀压力已经不仅仅是美国民众、美联储和拜登政府的问题，这正在深刻的影响到全球经济前景和不同资产类别的价格走势。
在数据出炉的前夜，投资者采取了防御性动作。美股先跌为敬，三大股指遭遇了5月中旬以来的最大跌幅。10年期收益率站稳3%上方，避险情绪刺激美元指数站上103关口，非美货币全线下跌，黄金的多空双方则继续处于观望状态。
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市场预计本次CPI的同比增速会从8.3%降至8.2%，分析师给出的预测区间为8%-8.5%。核心CPI预计从6.2%降至5.9%。值得注意的是，在过去10次的CPI数据中，有9次都是好于预期的。
考虑到此前美国4月的CPI和核心CPI都出现了增速放缓迹象，而核心PCE物价指数甚至已经连续两个月回落。市场中出现了“通胀见顶”的观点。
但统计数字和实际感受之间或许存在着较大的差异。一方面是原油价格的持续升高导致美国国内的零售汽油均价突破了5美元/加仑，同比增长超过50%。能源价格的上涨还引发了物价全面普涨的格局。与此同时，缺工现象刺激工资继续保持较高增速、PMI显示经济活力复苏、且消美国费支出依旧强劲（储蓄率跌至2008年以来最低）。这些因素都使通胀短时间内难以快速降温。
正因为此，一两次的通胀数据回落似乎还不足以得出“通胀见顶”的结论。美联储预计也将继续维持其鹰派立场，维持多次50个基点的加息节奏，直到数据出现实质且持续的改善。对于超速行驶的汽车来说，如果刹车踩的晚自然需要踩得更狠。相比于急刹车带来的风险，失控的结果更为可怕。
从短线来看，如果CPI跌至8%甚至下方，美元将承压，美股尤其是成长股或将迎来一丝转机，黄金的多头力量可能浮现，并推动金价走出当前的窄幅震荡格局。
如果CPI超出预期，美联储的加息将变得更为迫切。美元指数或将继续受益于紧缩预期和避险情绪维持上行。美/日可能再次冲击135的20年新高。
在6和7月加息50bp几乎成为定局的情况下，数据公布后我们需要尤其关注市场对9月份的预期。当然，下周美联储的利率决议将会给到我们更多线索。
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