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Analysis
下圖顯示，彭博工業金屬分類指數（藍色）從今年3月就開始了下行趨勢，而農產品分類指數（白色）在5月見頂。進入6月份後隨著能源的高位回調，彭博大宗商品指數（橙色）也不可避免的出現了下降的跡象。
在全球高通脹的時代（美國8.6%，英國9.1%，歐元區8.1%、加拿大7.7%），理論上大宗商品價格的降溫是我們所樂見的。然而事實並非完全如此。
如果說是因為供應端的改善導致價格回落，那自然是皆大歡喜。但如果是因為全球央行加息過快從而抑製了需求端，這種情況所導致的價格崩盤恐怕是經濟衰退的征兆之一。不幸的是，我們現在正處於這個階段。
進入6月以來，長時間堅挺的原油價格也出現了松動，WTI原油本月累計跌幅近10%，布倫特跌了8%。其實供應端的情況並沒有明顯的改善，歐美和俄羅斯之間的製裁與反製裁仍在延續，美國和OPEC的增產幅度依然有限。主要的問題在於美聯儲過於激進的加息節奏讓經濟衰退已經不僅僅停留在理論層面了，消費信心、意願和能力自然受到沖擊。
除了高盛、花旗等紛紛給出具體的衰退概率預期，昨天鮑威爾在國會的證詞中也認同了經濟衰退的可能性。但為了壓製通脹，美聯儲別無選擇。
圖：WTI原油（SpotCrude）
在全球央行的無限量放水的刺激之下，大宗商品由於其抗通脹屬性成為了疫情以來表現最好的資產大類。而一旦當市場環境和底層邏輯發生了根本性的轉變時，投資者便開始拋售一切。股票、數字貨幣、高收益率債券市場等已經一片狼藉，現在輪到了今年僅存的還保持正受益的大宗商品。
說到抗通脹，黃金近來的表現相對較為平穩。金價始終受到通脹和加息的反復拉扯，一直在200天均線附近徘徊。期權市場的風險逆轉指標顯示多空雙方的力量處於均勢。在通脹見頂之前，加息預期或將令多頭繼續沈寂。而金價想要突破上行，需要看到美聯儲的加息節奏放緩，甚至出現降息的預期。
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