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Analysis
疫情再次引起了市场关注。美国六个州的新冠感染人数创历史新高，北京病例数不断攀升，巴西更是单日新增创纪录的3.7万例。然而美国的1万亿美元基建投资计划和美联储政策兜底缓解了避险情绪，抑制了金价的上行。另外，中国和印度的边境小规模摩擦以及朝鲜半岛的局势，很难升级成为足以影响全球局势的风险事件。因此并没有给金价造成太大的波动。
投资者正在谨慎评估疫情的影响和各国不断升级的经济刺激计划。美联储和欧洲央行已经率先行动继续加码宽松的货币政策。今晚英国央行大概率会跟进，扩大其资产购买规模。在全球联合抗疫救市的大背景下，只要各国不再重回大规模封锁状态，那疫情的因素可能不会再次主导市场情绪。
昨天我们提及了“美联储期权”和经济数据在过去几天提振了风险资产，这些因素预计将长期存在，并可能改善企业未来的现金流以及股息分配预期。下图的标普500股息期货指数显示，2021年（蓝色）和2022（白色）的股息分配预期不断攀升，同期的标普500指数（橙色）录得强势反弹，这向我们描绘了一幅充满希望的经济复苏蓝图。
标普500股息期货 vs 标普500 来源：Bloomberg
技术面上，黄金自4月份以来就一直处于1670至1745的箱体内做宽幅震荡运行。日线图上，近期金价重心有所下移，短期均线走平，没有出现连续的阴线或阳线，且多空换手较为频繁，显示出震荡胶着的态势。
黄金（XAUUSD）小时图 来源：MT4
在小时图上，可以清晰地观察到金价在过去几天连续挑战水平阻力带和三角整理上沿结合处的1730未果，上攻动能显示出衰竭的迹象。在避险情绪没有完全引爆之前，我们倾向于短线内反弹做空的策略。首要支撑位可见布林带中轨的1725，下破后有望探低至三角形整理下沿1715。
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