Analysis
OPEC+谈判陷僵局 油价飙升
原定于上周举行的OPEC+会议因为成员国之间的严重分歧一拖再拖。原计划本周一继续协商，但昨天突然宣布会议取消，并且未能就下次会议时间达成共识。
OPEC+在上周五提出了两项提议。第一项是从8月开始到年底，每月以40万桶/日的速度恢复约200桶/日的产量以满足不断复苏的市场需求。第二项为建议将剩余减产配额的期限延长至2022年底（而非原计划的2022年4月）。
主要分歧出现在第二项，其遭到了阿联酋的坚决抵制并要求修改产量基准线，最终导致了谈判破裂会议搁浅。这也意味着OPEC+将保持现有的产量水平而不会向市场投放更多原油供应。
消息出炉后，原油价格大幅攀升。1小时图形显示，WTI油价突破了三角形整理区域后，跳升至33个月来的高点76.55美元。今天盘中进一步上扬，接近77美元。
WTI原油（SpotCrude） H1
OPEC+分歧显示出在油价今年回升50%的背景下，各成员国对市场份额和产量的争夺日渐白热化。市场的焦点在于何时能重启谈判，对此伊拉克石油部长希望是在10天之内。有一点可以肯定的是，会议被推迟越久，油价越有可能冲向80美元。
与此同时，期货市场不断加剧的现货溢价（贴水）或将进一步提振近端合约和原油现货的吸引力。
值得留意的是，如果OPEC+在原油无限接近80美元的时候再宣布新的产量调整计划，届时可能更容易引发投资者的获利了结。另外，伊朗的核谈判进程以及新冠疫情重燃始终是原油多头潜在的威胁。
最后不得不考虑的一种可能性是谈判破裂。如果OPEC+成员国各自为战放弃产量约束，或将彻底逆转今年油价的升势，尽管这一可能性不大。
隔夜货币市场波幅不大，石油相关的货币中，挪威克朗上涨0.4%，而加元则小幅下跌。
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