Analysis

Gold

红五月后黄金的下一个“引爆点”在哪里?

Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
1 June 2020
金价连续两个月录得涨幅。在刚过去的5月上涨了2.6%,月中更是触及了七年半以来的新高1765美元/盎司。周一早盘高开后目前交投于1737一线。

日线图上,5天和10天EMA温和看涨并形成金叉,RSI指标在积极区域小幅上升。周线图上留下了一根较长的下影线,预示多头仍然掌握着主动。但日线图上,MACD线出现了顶背离的现象,需要留意价格回落的风险。

黄金对美元(XAUUSD)日线图

中美局势短期内将继续主导金价走势。美国已宣布不再承认香港的高度自治状态并宣布相应制裁措施。中美紧张局势短期内难以消退,我们预计金价将继续当前震荡上行的趋势。枢轴点上下的S1和R1可以作为日内运行区间的参考,即1716-1741。

如果有更“劲爆”的消息(如贸易战升级)出炉,可能引发金价新一轮的爆发。4月高点1747是多头在冲击更高水平前需要攻克的目标。

除了中美关系,美元近期的弱势表现同样支撑了金价。另外,全球央行都实施了非常规的救市措施,或将继续维持低利率较长时间,甚至负利率也不断被提及。未来的货币贬值和通胀预期将在长期内对黄金形成利好。

本周将迎来全球三大央行(澳洲、加拿大、欧洲)的利率决议,以及美国非农就业、制造业PMI、澳洲GDP和零售销售等重磅数据,将给投资者提供更多未来货币政策方向以及全球经济复苏进展的线索。如果经济快速走上复苏轨道,将给黄金的上行方向带来压力。

全球政治风暴升级后黄金能否挑战历史高点?在动荡不安的市场中投资者该如何精准掌握黄金的投资逻辑?疫情过后又潜藏着怎么样的投资机遇?欢迎您参加Pepperstone线上直播六月首秀,一起探索黄金背后的秘密。



本期话题:

  • 外汇和CFD交易的优势
  • 疫情下的黄金投资机遇与“秘笈”
  • 中美博弈将如何影响澳元走势

直播时间:

2020年6月2日(星期二) 7:00 pm - 8:00 pm (墨尔本时间)

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