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Analysis
阿里巴巴2022财年第四季度业绩好于预期。全年来看亮点在于营收同比增长19%，中国市场消费者突破10亿，阿里云13年来首次实现年度盈利，以及蚂蚁集团的首次分红方案等。由于疫情的不可预测性，阿里巴巴未能给出当前财年的业绩指引。
百度今年第一季度的营收和净利双双超出预期，自动驾驶和智能交通在全国各地落地，APP活跃用户稳健增长。
两大科技巨头的的股价飙升带动中概股集体走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨7.57%。HK50和CN50指数今天截止目前为止分别跳升1.60%和3.27%。
HK50
但是，如果仔细观察会发现阿里巴巴业绩本身其实并没有那么出色（营收增速放缓，净利润下降），而且未来仍然充满变数，如疫情对零售消费和供应链的冲击（核心电商业务贡献了全年营收的87%）、日益激烈的同业竞争、美国对海外上市公司的退市威胁，以及来自监管层的压力等。政府的确正在加速出台各项刺激措施，但这需要时间来具体落实并传导至终端市场。不论是消费者还是投资者，信心的恢复不会是一蹴而就的。
昨天的股价可能更多体现的是一种长期积压的负面情绪的释放，毕竟从2020年10月的高点以来阿里巴巴的股价已经累计下跌了70%。如果能冲破下降趋势线的压制（102附近），才有可能真正扭转长期以来的颓势。
BABA.US
和阿里巴巴拥有相似处境的还有其他一些中概股和相关指数。虽然短线仍然处在筑底阶段，但对长线投资者来说，目前中国资产较低的估值具备一定吸引力。
另外，目前的外部市场环境也有所改善。随着美联储鹰派程度暂时见顶、美股财报季的落幕、以及月底投资组合再平衡的需要，美股正在经历超跌后的修正行情。
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