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Analysis
本周早些时候公布的7月空缺职位数意外的再次创下历史新高1123万，这意味着现在每一个失业人口对应着1.98个空缺职位，比6月的1.87有所上升。可见目前的劳动力市场还是非常强劲的，甚至与整个经济大环境有一些违和感。这一方面是因为数据本身具有滞后性，另外疫情也改变了很多人的工作方式，使得数据统计有一些失真。
本次的非农报告预计新增30万就业人口，预测区间为7.5-45.2万，从这个宽泛的区间就可以看出来，预测的准确率不会太高，因此数据公布后对市场的影响也会充满变数，大幅波动在所难免。失业率预计维持再3.5%的低位，时薪增速从5.2%增至5.3%，这对控制通胀并不能起到帮助。
目前利率市场显示9月加息75个基点的概率接近80%，明年的终端利率逼近4%，两者比起上周鲍威尔在央行年会讲话过后都高出不少，市场的鹰派押注越发明显。
好于预期的就业数据（如新增40万就业）将强化FED的鹰派立场，为9月大幅加息扫清障碍，从而延续美股近几个交易日的跌势，标普500恐将顺势跌破3900点，美元指数以及美/日则继续冲高。
若新增就业远低于预期（如来到15万甚至更低），9月加息预期将会降低，美元或将从20年高点显著回落，标普在锤形形态和61.8%回档位附近或许能获得一定支撑，纳斯达克的反弹幅度预计能到达2%。
标普500（US500）
总而言之，想要控制通胀，就业市场就必须降温。乐观的非农数据将继续成为股市的负担，但能帮助美元保持强势。
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