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Analysis
美国5月制造业PMI数据继续扩张且好于预期，其中物价支付指数仍然处于高位并高于市场预期，但低于前值。这和此前的PCE数据一样，暗示着美国通胀或许正在见顶，但要真正的回落还需要时间。
与此同时，空缺职位数依然在记录高位附近徘徊。在目前的美国，每一个失业人口对应两个空缺职位，可见劳动力市场仍然非常吃紧。而面对招工困难，雇主只能通过提高工资来解决，这也是为什么通胀短时间难以迅速降温的原因。
明天出炉的非农报告中除了关注新增就业（预计32.5万，前值42.8万）和失业率（预计3.5%，前值3.6%）之外，平均时薪增速同样重要，预计将从5.5%降至5.2%。
昨天的数据公布之后，美联储中支持快速加息的呼声再次升高，而各期限美债收益率同步走高。更为关键的是，5年期实际利率经过一段时间的整理之后再度升至零值附近，带动美元指数同样在趋势线和均线位置反弹。
美元指数（USDX）
其他非美货币昨天全线承压。与美债收益率相关性最高的当属美/日，昨天是三周以来首次突破130。欧洲央行的愈发鹰派的加息预期并没能提振欧元走势，在1.0780一线突破未果之后昨天重新回到50天均线下方。加拿大央行如期宣布50bp的加息并且明示未来会有更多的措施来遏制通胀，不过加元在收盘时回吐了所有日内涨幅。
在美元走强的背景下，黄金昨天意外收涨。但值得注意的是，目前不论是从周线，日线，或小级别周期来看，黄金都是处于下行通道中。相比于不断升高的实际利率，金价仍然存在高估。不过美联储对于未来加息路径的激烈辩论或许能避免金价的大幅回落。
XAUUSD 4H
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