- English
- 中文版
Analysis
两者月线几乎收平，而纳斯达克则累计下跌2%。月末的反弹体现出市场中逢低买入的力量、月末再平衡的需要、以及最重要的对于加息路径和经济衰退的重新计价。
标普500多头的下一个目标是4270附近，这里是趋势线和均线汇合区域。能否顺利突破还需要更多利好因素的支持，其中最重要的就是波动率的回落。
目前标普30天和60天实际波动率为疫情爆发之初以来的最高水平，隐含波动率（VIX指数）持续高位震荡，这显然打击到了投资者的信心，导致市场流动性低迷，从而进一步放大价格波动，形成恶性循环。循环不破，做多力量就难以涌现，现在的熊市反弹终将成为下一波抛售的起点。一个比较乐观的迹象是美债波动率（MOVE指数）在整个5月持续回落，这或许能传导至股市缓和悲观情绪。
长期来看，企业盈利增速的预期将成为关键。今年第一季度标普的EPS同比增速仅为8.2%，去年三四季度为30%左右，而去年一二季度分别达到50%和90%。更令人担忧的是，亚马逊，沃尔玛，Meta等龙头股纷纷发出业绩预警，导致标普的盈利预期一直在向下修正。
中国5月PMI较4月有小幅回升且好于预期。但相比于经济数据，更振奋人心的消息无疑是上海的复工复产。过去几个月的数据注定不如人意，但预计从第三季度开始将逐渐好转。股市是向前看的，目前反映出的正是这种预期。
上图显示纳斯达克中国金龙指数、恒生科技和恒生指数均已突破了50天均线，扭转去年年初以来的长期下行趋势变得愈发现实。同样的走势也出现在沪深300、A50（CN50）等指数以及阿里巴巴、腾讯等个股上。
与美股的高位回落不同，中概股本身就长时间徘徊在底部区域。估值、宏观面、货币政策、以及市场情绪等因素继续恶化的可能性不大，因此长期来看上方空间更具吸引力。
Related articles
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..