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Analysis
最大的恐慌毫无疑问来自于疫情，尤其是高传染率的Delta病毒株。英国的疫情有失控的迹象，7天平均确诊人数（下图）飙升。讽刺的是，虽然英国已经全面解封，但首相却还处于隔离之中。更令人担心的是，疫苗接种率较高的国家（如以色列、美国等）同样面临着的大幅上升的确诊病例。
每百万人中确诊人数的7天平均值
作为避险货币，美元连续四天强势上涨，在过去5个交易日中兑几乎所有的G10货币都录得涨幅（同样是避险货币的日元除外）。
站上93关口的美元指数（USDX）令黄金承压回落至1810附近。在美债收益率低位徘徊和美元强势走高的双重影响之下，金价前期凌厉的涨势有所放缓，前景变得扑朔迷离。
不过如果您也注意到了上图中近来非常弱势的澳元走势，近期不妨关注以澳元计价的黄金交易，这显然比美元计价的黄金具有更高的回报率。
XAUAUD
就在澳洲大部分地区处于封锁的同时，澳洲联储纪要显示，未来将灵活的增加或缩减购债规模，强化了其鸽派立场。而衡量全球风险情绪的澳元随即刷新年内新低至0.7302，同时0.70已经进入空头视野。
AUDUSD
纽元同样受到波及，回吐了上周央行鹰派会议后的全部涨幅并跌至0.70下方。加元隔夜则因为油价企稳而小幅走高，但美/加继续徘徊在数月来的高点。
欧元和英镑延续着下行趋势，并且都已经跌破了关键的支撑位。周四的欧洲央行预计会按兵不动，将购债计划的调整留待9月会议再做定夺。但在疫情和特大洪水的双重打击之下，拉加德的鸽派立场几乎没有悬念。欧元是否将进一步跌向1.1700？
另外，美国三大股指昨天有所反弹，结束了连续数日的抛售。由于缺乏明显的刺激因素，因此可以被解读为投资者的逢低买入。但考虑到过高的估值和拥挤的仓位水平，若恐慌情绪进一步升级，非常有可能轻易击溃投资者心理防线。技术图形上的RSI顶背离也需要得到修正。
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