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Analysis

GBP
Gold

美股新高!黄金延续震荡等待关键数据

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
25 June 2021
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拜登的基建计划再次点燃了市场的风险偏好,美股再创新高,而黄金继续盘整。英镑在英国央行决议公布之后遭受重创。

英国央行维持基准利率(0.1%)和购债计划(8950亿英镑)不变,并对提前收紧货币政策表达了担忧,称过早收紧政策会破坏经济复苏。声明出炉后英镑兑美元一度暴跌80多点,最终收于1.3920。

今年英国出色的疫情控制和率先缩减购债是帮助英镑在5月份冲上1.42的主要原因,而现在变种病毒再次蔓延,央行又释放谨慎的信号,令英镑短线继续挣扎。只有当汇价重回1.40上方后才有望延续此前的升势。下方关注1.38附近的支撑。

GBPUSD 4H

除了英镑外,货币市场整体波动不大。商品货币澳元、纽元连续第四天回升,来到一周高点。美元指数(USDX)收平在91.77,欧元微涨至1.1931。美/日在111附近遇到一定阻力。

6月24日主要货币对涨跌幅

美国的初请人数虽然不及预期,但拜登1万亿美元的基建计划在两党基本达成共识,令股市投资者备受鼓舞。纳斯达克和标普500收盘再次刷新记录高位。

不过缩水版的基建计划是否能顺利闯关国会还有待考验,况且其中的4400亿是利用此前刺激计划的剩余资金,并不是新增的支出。

考虑道流动性依然宽松,收益率低位徘徊,波动率不断下行,情绪指标温和运行,经济数据总体向好,对于美股短期的走势,我们还是比较乐观的。下一个关键转折点将是美联储何时释放出明确的缩表信号。

另外,美国的23大型银行顺利通过了美联储的压力测试,显示资本状况良好,能够抵御严重的经济衰退,因此对于股票回购和派息的限制将被取消。这对金融板块尤其是银行股来说是一大利好。

黄金继续在1770-1797区域震荡整理。风险资产的走高降低了黄金的吸引力,同时美联储内部对于未来缩表进程的分歧也让黄金投资者不敢大举押注,暂时保持观望。

下一个能让黄金摆脱区间震荡的因素或许是今晚出炉的美国PCE数据。预计PCE将由3.6%升至3.9%,核心PCE从3.1%升至3.4%。无论最终数据如何,远高于美联储2%的目标是板上钉钉的。如果数据大幅好预期,或将提升缩表以及加息预期,打压金价。

XAUUSD 4H

WTI原油(SpotCrude)继续刷新多年新高至73.62,但在74美元上方似乎存在一定压力,近几个交易日蜡烛实体收窄而上下影线拉长,RSI指标也呈现顶背离现象,预计油价将经历一波很盘或调整。关注下周的OPEC+会议的产能决定。



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