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Analysis
加息50个基点并从6月开始启动缩表的决定完全符合市场的普遍预期。而对于投资者更为关注的加息路径预期，鲍威尔基本排除了未来几次会议上加息75个基点的可能性，这让此次的利率决议看上去略带那么一些“鸽派”。
下图显示，利率市场所暗示的未来几次会议上的加息幅度已明显放缓。
在抗通胀还是避免经济陷入衰退的两难选择上，鲍威尔似乎找到了平衡点。一方面是通过加息来尽快压低通胀，但同时也没有流露出过于激进的倾向，缓解了市场对于经济前景的担忧。这透露出的是对通胀逐渐见顶的预期，以及对经济软着陆的期待，当然也考虑了诸多外部不确定性因素，如乌克兰战争和全球供应链中断。
在政策定调之后，接下去需要更关注经济数据的影响，重中之重是本周五非农报告中的时薪增速以及5月11日的CPI数据。如果数据爆表，美联储仍然存在转向更为鹰派的可能性（虽然门槛会比较高），比如尽快将利率推升至甚至超过2%-3%的中性利率区间。
从利率决议出炉的市场反应来看，对货币政策更为敏感的美债短端收益率降幅明显高于长短，美元指数则延续短线回调跌至102.34附近，美元兑所有主要货币均录得跌幅。而受益于此前一天鹰派的澳洲联储决议，澳元昨天上涨超2.2%一枝独秀。英镑和欧元的涨幅均在1%左右。今晚英国央行预计将加息25个基点，有望继续带动英镑反弹。
伴随着此次利率决议的出炉，美联储最为鹰派的加息预期可能已经成为了过去式，这对美股来说无疑是重大利好。三大股指周三全线拉升，其中能源和科技股板块涨幅居前。此前非常低迷的情绪指标和较轻的仓位配置或许能迎来一定程度的反转。但要想看到整体趋势的逆转还需要时间。
由于欧盟宣布将考虑逐步实施对俄罗斯的原油禁令，油价昨天飙升5%左右，天然气涨幅接近7%。
WTI 4H
欧美和俄罗斯之间的制裁和反制裁或将继续让油价保持高位震荡，WTI原油正面临110一线阻力。如果油价进一步升高，对通胀的担忧将继续对美联储施压，美元或将受益。
黄金目前交投在1900美元关口附近。
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