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Analysis
原油多头希望重燃？
消息面上有两个动态值得关注，一个是最近传出的伊朗核协议谈判出现重实质性进展，有可能在近期就敲定最终版本，这将为120万桶/日的伊朗石油回归供应市场铺平道路。另一个是以沙特为首的OPCE+表示考虑减产来稳定价格。油价在不同消息的反复拉扯之中先抑后扬，最终回到了关键的支撑阻力转换区域之上，走出了6月以来的下降通道。
看似独立的两则新闻其实有着更深层的内在关系。沙特和伊朗之间在历史、宗教、地缘政治等各方面都有着巨大的恩怨矛盾。两国都想争当阿拉伯世界和中东地区的霸主，在原油出口市场也处于竞争关系。眼看美伊之间的谈判即将获得突破，沙特立马反击表示减产，一方面是稳定油价，另一方面也是警告美国不要放松对伊朗核武发展方面的限制。
沙特的这一举动对拜登政府来说无疑是又一次挫败。此前的中东之行游说增产毫无成果，随即转向伊朗又被沙特“偷袭”。油价和通胀居高不下，年底的期中选举岌岌可危。
从最近这些事态的进展来看，市场上对年底前看空油价的预测可能需要适度调整。
作为OPEC+的主要成员国，沙特和俄罗斯显然不希望油价长期低于100美元，也将会尽力阻止或抵消伊朗的供应增量。另外，欧盟将从12月开始禁运俄罗斯石油（不知道是谁给的勇气），这无疑将推高欧洲的原油价格。而拜登这边能做的并不多！在释放战略原油储备之后，库存已经降至35年来的最低水平。而鼓励国内企业加速开采石油和天然气的想法又和竞选时的清洁能源政策背道而驰，能源公司也不愿意冒险跟进。
当然，除了供应端的问题之外，在衰退阴影之下的需求前景也不容乐观，这让目前油价的短线升势很难长时间持续，100和104是WTI上方首要的两个阻力位。
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