Analysis

OilCAD

原油涨幅领跑 铜价高位回落

Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
16 June 2021
今年最火爆的主流投资标的(不考虑加密货币)当属原油。布伦特原油今年累计涨幅超过40%,WTI原油更是达到了50%。

疫情的逐渐缓和让压抑许久的能源需求得以爆发。在北半球夏季旅游旺季来临之前,原油组织、投行、市场参与者纷纷预计全球原油需求将在下半年大幅回升,甚至会产生供应缺口。OPEC+正是基于这一乐观预期坚定的执行增产计划。伊朗的增量供应短期之内难以撼动市场,更何况伊朗的总统大选结果可能成为重返核协议的变数。

WTI原油(SpotCrude)在突破66.50后势如破竹,已经站上了72美元的关口。在进一步冲击2018年高点77美元之前,需要留意顶背离暗示的短线回调风险。若美元反弹,也将成为限制油价上升的重要因素。

WTI原油(SpotCrude)日线图



能源股显然受益于油价的拉升。近一个月以来标普500的能源板块上涨近8%,领跑全部行业类别。在个股中,我们不妨关注埃克森美孚(XOM.N)。与原油走势类似,在突破了前期62.50的阻力之后,股价来到了17个月的高位。多头有望将趁势继续推高股价。

XOM.N 日线图

在货币市场中,理应受到油价提振的加元却并没有进一步刷新6年新高。虽然美元暂时还在等待美联储的信号,但USDCAD已经有冲出底部盘整区域的迹象,5天EMA线和RSI指标看涨。如果能突破1.2204,将坐实汇价反弹的势头。

USDCAD 日线图

此前风光无限屡创新高的铜,近一个月以来陷入了下降通道,连续走出了更低的高点和低点。昨天重挫4%之后,铜价已经跌穿50天均线和4.37的关键支撑。下一步将考验100天均线的4.20一线。铜价的下跌拖累了澳元等商品货币的走势,同时也暗示着通胀在短期飙升之后可能会逐渐回落。

Copper 日线图


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