- English
- 中文版
Analysis
盡管有眾多投行和數據都暗示標普500需要經歷一波調整，我們在此前的文章中也詳細分析了這些原因，但鮑威爾上周在傑克遜霍爾會議上的鴿派言論幫助股指一舉站上了4500點這一新的歷史高度。
史上最快翻番？RSI指標背離？新冠疫情？這些都不重要！風險偏好不斷升高，流動性的盛宴仍在繼續！
標普500（US500）
短期來看指數面臨兩個考驗。一是本周五的非農數據若連續第三個月實現大幅增長，可能重燃對美聯儲縮減購債的預期。二是即將到來的9月是標普500一年中表現最差的月份，在過去十年的9月期間平均跌幅為0.6%。布林帶上軌能否放緩股指上漲的腳步？
下圖中綠線是標普當前的走勢，而白線是過去十年的季節性效應，其在1（現在）和2（9月中旬）的位置分別有明顯的下跌。第二波回撤的時間正好涵蓋了9月22日的FOMC會議，這是在暗示屆時將正式宣布Taper嗎？
因為英國假期的原因，貨幣市場周一顯得比較平靜。美元、歐元和英鎊幾乎持平，商品貨幣在經歷了周五的大幅跳升後昨天稍作喘息，瑞郎則領跌。
考慮到美聯儲年底前開始縮表已經沒有懸念，因此總體上還是看好美債收益率和美元指數的表現的。那些在貨幣政策上更大膽激進的貨幣（如英鎊、加元、紐元等）也有望受益。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）隨著颶風威力的減弱從日內高點回落，但仍收高於69.24。颶風的影響過後，市場將焦點轉向明天的OPEC+部長級會議。若增產計劃被推遲，油價可能從當前下降通道的頂部區域進一步回落。
關於黃金白銀的走勢，歡迎關註我們的每天更新視頻分析《說金道銀》。
Related articles
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..