Analysis
標普500的新篇章
盡管有眾多投行和數據都暗示標普500需要經歷一波調整，我們在此前的文章中也詳細分析了這些原因，但鮑威爾上周在傑克遜霍爾會議上的鴿派言論幫助股指一舉站上了4500點這一新的歷史高度。
史上最快翻番？RSI指標背離？新冠疫情？這些都不重要！風險偏好不斷升高，流動性的盛宴仍在繼續！
標普500（US500）
短期來看指數面臨兩個考驗。一是本周五的非農數據若連續第三個月實現大幅增長，可能重燃對美聯儲縮減購債的預期。二是即將到來的9月是標普500一年中表現最差的月份，在過去十年的9月期間平均跌幅為0.6%。布林帶上軌能否放緩股指上漲的腳步？
下圖中綠線是標普當前的走勢，而白線是過去十年的季節性效應，其在1（現在）和2（9月中旬）的位置分別有明顯的下跌。第二波回撤的時間正好涵蓋了9月22日的FOMC會議，這是在暗示屆時將正式宣布Taper嗎？
因為英國假期的原因，貨幣市場周一顯得比較平靜。美元、歐元和英鎊幾乎持平，商品貨幣在經歷了周五的大幅跳升後昨天稍作喘息，瑞郎則領跌。
考慮到美聯儲年底前開始縮表已經沒有懸念，因此總體上還是看好美債收益率和美元指數的表現的。那些在貨幣政策上更大膽激進的貨幣（如英鎊、加元、紐元等）也有望受益。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）隨著颶風威力的減弱從日內高點回落，但仍收高於69.24。颶風的影響過後，市場將焦點轉向明天的OPEC+部長級會議。若增產計劃被推遲，油價可能從當前下降通道的頂部區域進一步回落。
關於黃金白銀的走勢，歡迎關註我們的每天更新視頻分析《說金道銀》。
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