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要想判斷美股的「熊市反彈」還能持續多久,首先需要了解這波反彈背後的真正驅動力是什麽。除了加息預期降溫之外,我個人覺得流動性是另一個合理的解釋。對的,您並沒有聽錯,在貨幣政策的緊縮周期,市場的流動性依然充裕!
FED從6月開始打出加息縮表的組合拳,但其中縮表是漸進式的,每月的規模從6月的475億美元逐漸擴大到9月的950億美元,操作的方法也是被動式的,即到期不進行再投資。至少目前來看,FED將近9萬億美元的資產負債表下降程度微乎其微。
仔細分析資產負債表可以發現,存款機構存放在FED的存款準備金在7月小幅上升至3.34萬億美元,一定程度上抵消了縮表的影響。而從信貸市場來看,高收益率債券利差(信用利差)從6月的近6%收窄至現在的4.33%,顯示出違約風險下降風險偏好上升,同樣印證了流動性。另外,俄烏戰爭以及全球經濟衰退的悲觀預期使得資本快速回流美國擁抱美元。因此在本應該是量化緊縮(QT)的周期,我們卻看到了量化寬松(QE)的影子。
FED存款準備金規模(白) vs 納斯達克100指數(紅)
Nasdaq 100
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