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Analysis

US500
Oil

【本周展望】“黑五”过后再次开启避险模式?

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
29 Nov 2021
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本周有美国非农、OPEC产量决定和欧元区的众多关键数据出炉,但是新冠病毒的超级变体Omicron(奥密克戎)才是市场最大的隐忧和变数。

本周关注

周一(11月29日):德国11月CPI、欧元区经济景气指数

周二(11月30日):中国11月PMI、欧元区11月CPI、美国9月房屋价格指数

周三(12月1日):澳洲第三季度GDP、欧元区11月制造业PMI终值、美国11月ADP和ISM制造业PMI

周四(12月2日):OPEC+部长级会议、欧元区10月失业率、美国初请

周五(12月3日):欧元区10月零售销售、美国11月非农报告、美国11月ISM服务业PMI、加拿大11月就业报告

股市

黑色星期五(Black Friday)是美国传统的购物旺季,类似中国的双11。但用“黑色”来形容上周五的全球股市(以及商品、货币等)再贴切不过。

当流动性较低的感恩节假期遇上由新型变种病毒株Omicron引起的恐慌抛售,美国三大主要股指单日跌幅均超过2%。美国经济数据的好转和鲍威尔获得连任提名给美股带来的利好在疫情面前显得不堪一击,这让投资者再次回想起了被Delta支配的恐惧。

在欧洲发现感染病例以及英国率先实施部分禁航后,欧洲主要股指下跌超过4%。下图显示了上周全球股市的惨淡场景。

上周全球股市跌幅 来源:Pepperstone MT4

对于这个被称为“迄今为止最糟糕的变种”,大多数疫苗厂商已经开始进行研究和试验。现有的疫苗能否抵御病毒、各国又是否会重回封锁(以色列已经宣布紧急封国)、经济是否将重新陷入衰退?太多的未知令“恐慌指数”VIX升至两个月新高,美股看跌期权的交易量猛增。

标普500 (US500)

11月的非农将在周五出炉,作为下周FOMC前的最后一份就业报告,预计将增加53.5万,失业率进一步回落至4.5%。但在疫情重燃的背景下,市场情绪才是决定股市走向的关键因素。在获得关于Omicron更确切的消息之前,波动率或将持续高位运行,投资者不可避免地开启自我保护模式,市场或许会借此机会对过高的估值做一番短期修正。

黄金

黄金上周下跌近3%,但在最后三个交易日连续收在1790附近,目前200天均线和RSI平坦运行。周五的行情再次明确了1780-1815的支撑和阻力,本周继续关注该交投区间。

原本因鲍威尔获得连任后有所升温的加息预期已经被再次推迟至明年9月,黄金的下行风险被部分解除。但若美元获得更多避险买盘的支撑,多头的机会同样不多。

原油

WTI原油上周暴跌超过10%,跌穿200天均线并刷新两个月新低,布伦特重挫8%。疫情让投资者对原油市场做出了重新定价。高传播率的病毒让刚刚有所起色的航空业再次遭受打击,需求端对油价的影响远远大于美国所释放的“仅仅”5000万桶战略原油储备。

WTI(SpotCrude)

OPEC已经发出了原油过剩的警告。市场普遍预期本周四的OPEC+部长级会议上可能宣布暂缓增产计划,这或许能为油价提供短暂的缓冲。WTI周一开盘重回200天均线,若跌破后下方关注67.60和62附近的支撑。

外汇

  • 美元

鲍威尔的连任提名、出色的经济数据、以及美联储鹰派的会议纪要一度帮助美元指数冲上了96.76的16个月高点,但对疫情的恐慌导致加息预期降温后,美元在周五回吐一周的所有涨幅。

虽然周K线暗示回落的风险,但避险情绪和美国经济的相对优势(相比欧洲和新兴市场)可能为美元指数提供一定支撑。

  • 欧元

欧元在连续两周大跌后在17个月低点附近企稳反弹至1.13上方,修正了长时间背离的技术指标。美联储加息预期降温也是重要原因,美国和德国10年期国债利差收窄至180bp左右。

EURUSD

由于欧洲再次成为疫情重灾区且多国相继确认了Omicron病毒,德国、奥地利等国甚至重新实施了限制措施,这些都将考验欧元反弹的力度。在1.15下方,空头依然占据主动。本周关注欧元区的CPI、PMI、失业率和零售销售等数据。

  • 英镑

英镑周线下跌0.83%至1.3333,刷新了今年新低的同时已经逼近了5月开始的下行通道的下轨。本周关注英镑是否能像欧元那样走出一波反弹行情。英国本周没有重要的经济数据,但原本英国央行12月“板上钉钉”的加息在疫情反复的情况下又变得扑朔迷离了起来,现在加息15bp的概率仅有50%。

  • G10

纽元(-2.63%)、挪威克朗(-1.82%)、澳元(-1.65%)、加元(-1.12%)等商品货币上周跌幅居前。疫情对风险情绪、大宗商品和原油价格的影响同样拖累了汇价。相对来说,日元和瑞士法郎兑美元均有0.6%左右的涨幅,突显出避险货币的魅力。

由于新型病毒起源于南非,兰特的贬值(USDZAR一年新高)并不令人意外。

交叉货币对AUDJPY可以很好的衡量风险情绪,今天早盘的反弹暗示股市可能止跌回升。


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