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Analysis
美国三大股指周四回吐了此前一天的所有涨幅。纳斯达克和道琼斯录得2020年以来最大单日跌幅，标普500中90%成分股下跌，FAAMG等龙头股重挫4%-7%，恐慌指数VIX飙升至32。
一般情况下，在美联储重要决议公布的当天和第二天，市场走势可能出现一些反复或者自我修正，因为投资者正在积极消化政策可能产生的影响，此时多空力量会产生激烈的博弈。但如此戏剧化的逆转（从+3%到-4%）还是不同寻常。
昨天的大反转一方面反映了近来脆弱的市场情绪，比如AAII的散户投资人情绪指数显示，美股的看空情绪达到了2009年以来的最极端水平，接近长期均值下方三倍标准差。
另一方面，在关键的非农数据公布的前夕，投资者还是担心货币政策未来会更快的收紧来压低通胀，并拖累经济前景。
两个此前并不引人关注的数据显示，美国第一季度非农生产力下降7.5%，前值6.3%，而同期的单位劳动力成本飙升11.6%，前值为1%。另外，此前出炉的雇佣成本指数环比增长1.4%创30多年来新高。本周刚公布的3月空缺职位创下1155万的纪录高位，几乎是失业人口的两倍之多。
火爆的就业市场也就意味着雇主需要支付更高的薪水来招揽或留住员工。而随着劳动力成本的快速上升，通胀在短期很难降温。这也是为什么利率市场显示在6月加息75个基点的概率仍然接近90%，并且10年期收益率自2018年以来首次攀升至3%上方。
非农报告将在今晚压轴登场，预计4月新增39万非农岗位，失业率降至3.5%。重中之重是平均时薪的增速。若同比保持5.5%以上的增长，股市可能会继续承压，而美元指数有望再次挑战130.80一线的关键阻力。
对黄金来说，昨天在1909附近折戟，没能进一步上探1920一线。较长的上影线和连续下移的高点突显出金价近来的弱势行情。更重要的是，利率的上升让多头暂时缺乏信心。下图显示美国的实际利率（红线）经过连续的拉升之后已经回到正值区域，而同期黄金（黄线）的跌幅却相对有限。这有没有可能拖累金价进一步震荡下行？
下行方向关注1850的前低，以及200天均线和去年8月以来的趋势线汇合处的1835一线。
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