Analysis
当黄金遇上日元
美国的初请失业金人数降至疫情以来最低，并且PPI出现缓和的迹象一定程度上缓解了通胀隐忧。美国三大股指集体上扬，其中标普500（下图US500）再次尝试挑战50天均线，11个行业板块全部上涨，93%的个股收高。若指数能顺利突破均线的阻力，记录高位或将再次进入多头视野。
同样提振市场信心的还有企业财报。摩根大通、花旗、摩根士丹利等华尔街银行的三季度业绩全部超出预期。但昨天贡献最大涨幅的还要属原材料（+2.42%）和科技股（+2.28%）。
随着美债收益率的回落，美元指数（USDX）继续处于调整阶段。周四美元兑除日元外的所有主要货币都录得跌幅。纽元以1%的涨幅一马当先，加元继续受到原油价格升高的利好。四连阳的澳元升至一个月高点。澳洲11月重新开放国境的计划有望帮助汇价顺势突破100天均线。欧元则需要关注技术指标底背离之后潜在的反转可能。
但最近货币市场的焦点还是集中在日元。下图是过去5天内一些主要货币兑日元的涨幅，期间美/日仅仅涨了1.5%，而日系交叉货币对（NZDJPY、AUDJPY等）都有突破后加速上行的迹象。显然，各国货币政策的分化正在产生影响。另外，由于土耳其总统一天内炒了三位央行官员，USDTRY再创历史新高。
黄金经过前天的大涨之后，昨天在200均线附近稍作停留，收盘略低于1800的整数关口。如果能突破当前的关键阻力，1833的颈线位置应该是这轮反弹的下一个目标。
在黄金重新获得关注且日元弱势的背景下，以日元计价的黄金（下图XAUJPY）爆发出了更强的动能，您不妨将其加入到观察列表当中。用最弱势的货币购买强势的资产始终是上佳的策略。
今天重点关注美国的9月零售销售数据、10月消费者信心指数，以及高盛等三季度财报。
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