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Analysis
有“小非农”之称的ADP就业数据显示，8月仅新增37.4万个工作岗位，远低于预期的60万。连续第二个月大幅低于预期的数据为本周五的非农（北京时间20:30）拉响了警报。考虑到ADP很大程度上是和前一起非农保持一致的，在7月非农增加94.3万的情况下，此次ADP显得更令人失望。另一个悲观的暗示是ISM制造业的就业指数已经跌至荣枯线下方。
ADP公布之后，美元指数进一步下滑，投资者似乎正在押注一个令人失望的非农报告。此次非农预期增加75万，失业率降至5.2%。
众所周知，就业市场是美联储最为看重的经济指标。如果数据强劲（如大于85万），将会巩固市场对于美联储11月甚至9月宣布缩表（Taper）的预期，美元指数可能从近一个月的低点展开反弹。反之，糟糕的数据（如小于55万）会延缓缩表进程，指数或将跌破92关口。
在美元黯淡的同时，欧元已经悄然回升至1.18上方。由于欧元区通胀率飙至10年来最高的3%，欧洲央行内部逐渐出现了退出量化宽松（PEPP）的鹰派呼声。下周三的央行政策会议虽然难有实际行动，但我们或许将听到更多关于PEPP的讨论，这一因素将持续影响汇价的走势。交叉货币对方面，我们可以关注EURCHF、EURJPY等。
澳元出人意料的成为了昨天G10货币的领跑者，大幅跳升0.7%后收于三周高点0.7367。除了美元的持续走弱，澳洲自身好于预期的第二季度GDP同样提振了汇价。虽然部分城市仍处在封锁，但疫苗接种率的快速升高还是令人看到解封的希望。上行方向关注0.7380附近的初步阻力。
就业数据不佳对美元来说是一种打击，对股市的影响可能正好相反。
当已经连续7个月上涨的标普500指数进入到史上表现最差的9月，我们会看到一种怎样的局势？股指是再创新高或是迎来回调？本周五的非农或许将给我们答案。
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