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Analysis
从日线图上看，金价昨天收盘突破了始于5月18日的下行通道（红）上轨，若金价能站稳通道上方，短期内有望挑战前高1745和1765。短期均线和MACD指标均暗示后市有向上突破的潜力。若收盘回落至通道内则证明是虚假突破。下方的50天EMA（绿）提供了支撑，若价格回撤至此可以考虑适当建仓。
黄金（XAUUSD）日线图 来源：MT4
当前环境下，我们依然看好黄金的长期走势。众所周知，黄金的抗通胀、对冲经济衰退及不确定性的天然属性使得黄金在疫情期间受到追捧。而我们可以将这些宏观面的因素融入一个单一指标中进行观察。这个指标和黄金之间有千丝万缕的联系，是带动金价涨跌的核心因素，这就是美债的实际收益率。我们通过下图来进一步说明。
来源：Bloomberg
最上方：橙色代表黄金价格的倒数（走势越低代表金价越高），白色为美国5年期通货膨胀保值债券TIIPS的收益率（即扣除通胀因素后的实际收益率）。两条线的走势高度一致，说明了随着实际收益率走低（目前为-0.70%）金价走高，两者呈现负相关性。这背后的逻辑在于，虽然黄金本身类似于零息债券不产生受益，但相比负收益的债券还是更具有吸引力的。
中间：橙色代表5年期美债的名义利率，而蓝色是5年期盈亏平衡通胀率（即预期通胀率）。两者相减即为实际收益率。
美联储最新的点阵图显示，零利率下限将维持至2022年，且至少以目前的步伐继续购买债券，因此美债各期限名义利率可能长期在低位徘徊。一旦有走高的迹象，美联储还可以祭出”收益率曲线控制“甚至”负利率“这些杀招。另一方面，预期通胀率则可能随着经济重启，就业率回升，油价上涨、供应链回流等因素走高。由此可以预计，实际收益率或将长时间在负值区域走弱，这利好于黄金。
最下方：全球负收益率的债券规模（目前是11.2万亿美元）与金价同样呈现负相关性。越来越多的负收益债券会促使投资者远离债券市场，与此同时持有黄金的机会成本则相对降低，从而增加了黄金的吸引力。
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