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Analysis
由于疫情的蔓延以及其蕴含的巨大不确定性，导致资产定价体系瞬间崩盘。由此我们看到了股市从历史新高跌入深渊并附送了连续熔断、原油期货价格首见负值、避险黄金不升反降与全球各类资产一起遭到无情抛售等奇景。
而在疫情最严重的阶段，美元（USDX）则独领风骚，成为金融市场的一股清流。任凭美联储降息至0或启动量化宽松，都没能阻碍美元走强。
从“美元的微笑”看动荡不安的美元走势
投资者都知道在经济不景气时通过日元、瑞郎、黄金等避险。然而，在面对史无前例的金融危机、病毒侵袭、或经济衰退的时候，作为全球储备货币和结算货币的美元才是真正的王者。市场参与者在3月疯狂抛售一切资产换取美元，从而引发了美元的流动性危机。美元借贷成本一路飙升，美元指数（USDX）最高攀升至3月20日的103.79。
这符合摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)前策略师Stephen Jen提出的美元微笑理论(Dollar Smile)，即美元在重大危机和经济繁荣时都会走强。
随着美联储升级至无限量的QE、投放多项借贷工具、并且和全球央行开展了美元流动性互换，美元的流动性危机才稍有缓和，维持了一段时间的横盘整理态势。自5月开始即在各国解封之初，对经济重启的乐观期望使避险情绪暂时消退，美元指数最低下探至95.62。
短期内，受到疫情的反复、叠加中美摩擦和全球地缘政治风险等因素的影响，预计美元涨跌仍会被市场避险情绪所左右，继续保持当前的美股涨（跌）则美元跌（涨）的格局。
下半年美元走势预测
中期而言，美元的走势将会取决于更多维度的考量，如美国与其他经济体之间的利差、经济成长预期、美股走势、财政赤字水平、全球贸易增速等。除了疫情反复之外，下半年最大的不确定性源自于中美局势和美国大选。
美元走势下半年将如何演绎？能否再次展露“微笑”？各主流货币对又有什么样的前景呢？欢迎您参与我们的线上直播讲座，一起展望2020下半年的金融市场。
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