Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • English
  • 中文版
  • Ways to trade

    Pricing

    Trading accounts

    Pro

    Premium clients

    Refer a friend

    Active trader program

    Trading hours

    24-hour trading

    Maintenance schedule

  • Trading platforms

    Trading platforms

    TradingView

    Pepperstone platform

    MetaTrader 5

    MetaTrader 4

    cTrader

    Integrations

    Trading tools

  • Markets

    Markets to trade

    Forex

    Shares

    ETFs

    Indices

    Commodities

    Currency Indices

    Cryptocurrencies

    Dividends for index CFDs

    Dividends for share CFDs

    CFD forwards

  • Market analysis

    Market news

    Navigating Markets

    The Daily Fix

    Meet the analysts

  • Learn to trade

    Trading guides

    CFD trading

    Forex trading

    Commodity trading

    Stock trading

    Crypto trading

    Bitcoin trading

    Technical analysis

    Candlestick patterns

    Day trading

    Scalping trading

    Upcoming IPOs

    Gold trading

    Oil trading

    Webinars

  • Pepperstone Pro

  • Partners

  • About us

  • Help and support

  • English
  • 中文版
  • Launch webtrader

  • Ways to trade

  • Trading platforms

  • Markets

  • Market analysis

  • Learn to trade

  • Pepperstone Pro

  • Partners

  • About us

  • Help and support

Analysis

US500

流动性拐点已至 美股盛宴能否继续

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
22 June 2020
Share
美国股市自3月23日触底以来已经实现了疯狂的反弹。科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数飙升44%并再次创出新高,道指累计上涨了40%,标普500攀升39%。

其中,标普500经过上周最后三天的调整后,周一早盘低开后企稳回升,目前交投于3080一线,高于周五收盘价,RSI指标继续在积极区域运行。上方10天均线(黑)3095和周五高点3155是多头的短期目标。下方30天均线(棕)3036是天然支撑位,此处也是与上升通道下沿的汇合处。

标普500指数(US500)日线图

流动性助推美股升空

毫无疑问,美联储所提供的超级流动性是此轮美股飙升的最重要推手,以至于股市与基本面一度严重脱节。

自疫情爆发以来,美联储通过购买债券以及各项流动性工具的投放,使资产负债表在短短的3个月内从3万亿飙升至7万多亿美元。疫情期间,全球经济停摆,供应链断裂,资金很难流入到实体经济,因此转而投向了能带来财富增值的股市。另外,在获得直升机撒钱之后,更多散户大军投身股市,成为了机构投资者的“领路人”。数据显示,截至5月底,美股散户的新开交易账户数从年初的400万骤增至1200万。

流动性拐点是否已经来临?

然而,市场的狂欢似乎按下了暂停键。

美联储公布最新数据显示,截至6月17日,其资产负债表规模降至7.14万亿美元,较前一周下降800亿美元,这也是2月以来的首次下降。而此前与美联储资产负债表高度正相关的标普500指数,也于近日放缓了上涨的步伐。同期,波动率指数VIX走高并始终徘徊在30上方。

美联储资产负债表 vs 标普500 来源:zerohedge.com

然而,此次总资产的下降并不是来由于减少了国债或MBS的购买,而是因为美国国内的美元回购操作以及与其他央行开展的流动性互换这两个项目分别减少了880和920亿美元。而背后的原因是全球范围内美元短缺的结束。

如此一来,美联储为将来在必要的时候进行更多的国债和MBS购买准备好了弹药,并且能为刚刚上路的二级市场企业信贷工具(SMCCF)和主街贷款计划(Main Street Lending Program)预留更多空间。

另外,美国财政部在美联储的一般账户(Treasury General Account或TGA)现金余额已经冲高至1.56万亿美元左右,比财政部季末8000亿美元的预估值高出不少。过去一个月,财政部所累积的TGA(现金缓冲)大于同期美联储所投放的流动性,因此导致了市场流动性收紧的局面,这不仅使得美元汇率上涨,也使股市的上涨暂时失去了动力。若财政部的现金余额能加速下降(更多纾困和财政支出),则能缓解季末银行体系流动性的压力,对风险资产来说是一个利好。

十字路口

上周的分析中我们提到了“美联储看跌期权”的存在,因此美股大幅下跌的概率很小。目前的状况是散户获利退场,而机构逐渐加仓。经济数据回暖,但估值仍然偏高。美股似乎正陷入一个进退两难的境地。

同样面临十字路口的还有美联储。其有充足的弹药继续为市场护盘但暂时处于观望状态。在美联储再次投放流动性从而压低信贷利差(蓝和白)提振股市(棕)之前(见下图),近期的疫情重燃风险或将主导市场情绪,成为左右股市的不确定性因素。

公司债券息差 vs 标普500 来源:Bloomberg


Related articles

疫情2.0来袭 黄金为何无动于衷

Gold

当”美联储看跌期权”遇上经济数据强势反弹

US500

Most read

1

The disinflationary message seen in commodities and rates markets

2

Will the BOJ be the last dovish domino to fall?

3

Trader thoughts - the conflicting forces dictating EURUSD flow

Ready to trade?

It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.

Get startedSubscribe to The Daily Fix

The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.

Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..

Other sites

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Group
  • Careers

Ways to trade

  • Pricing
  • Trading accounts
  • Pro
  • Premium Clients
  • Active Trader program
  • Refer a friend
  • Trading hours

Platforms

  • Trading Platforms
  • Trading tools

Markets & Symbols

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • ETFs
  • Indices
  • Commodities
  • Currency indices
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • CFD Forwards

Analysis

  • Navigating Markets
  • The Daily Fix
  • Meet the analysts

Learn to Trade

  • Trading Guides
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support@pepperstone.com
1300 033 375
Level 16, Tower One, 727 Colins Street
Melbourne, VIC Australia 3008
  • Legal documents
  • Privacy policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Cookie policy
  • Whistleblower Policy
  • Sitemap

© 2025 Pepperstone Group Limited

Risk Warning: Trading CFDs and FX is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone and if you are a professional client, you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights in the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. You should consider whether you’re part of our target market by reviewing our TMD, and read our PDS and other legal documents to ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary.

Pepperstone Group Limited is located at Level 16, Tower One, 727 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3008, Australia and is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

© 2024 Pepperstone Group Limited | ACN 147 055 703 | AFSL No.414530